Screw you America, I love Barry Bonds
I crunched some numbers today and wanted to share them with everyone. We are not going to count any of Bond’s numbers after 1999. Everyone knows he became interested in performance enhancing drugs after watching two mediocre baseball players capture the attention of the country because they cheated in the summer of 1998. In 1999, Bonds only played 102 games due to injury. As Bonds entered the 2000 season we can reasonably assume he began his P.E.D usage. After 2000, Bonds played an additional eight seasons before he was unfairly blackballed from the sport altogether. So, I want to remove ALL emotion and subjectivity when delivering the numbers Bonds would have easily attained even if he would have never used any P.E.D’s.
My formula is based simply on the following: I added up all of Bond’s stats between his major 
league debut in 1986 and his final season of playing “clean” in 1999. I proceeded to divide all of his stats by 14, the number of seasons between 1986-1999. Aside from stolen bases, we can reasonably assume his numbers in the final seven years (we are not counting 2005 when he played only 14 games) would have been as good as those in years 1-14. Without steroids his numbers may have declined a bit in his last few seasons, but that is balanced out by weighing in his numbers during his first three major league seasons (which were pedestrian at best). I am not addressing the fact that he was in his prime from 2000-2004. I am not acknowledging that he received a record setting amount of walks which restricted his number of possible at bats. I am not going to look at any intangible factors that you could argue for or against him. Based upon my criteria this would have been his final numbers had he played an additional seven years free of any P.E.D’s:
669 Home Runs, 2,183 runs, 691 stolen bases, 1,950 RBI, .288 AVG, .407 OBP, .561 slugging %, 3,011 hits.
Before 2000 he racked up 3 MVP’s, 8 All Star appearances, and 8 Gold Gloves. Can we conclude that he would have won at least 2 more MVP’s, appeared in 5 more All Star games, and garnered a few more Gold Gloves?
If baseball fans were to forgive one player for taking steroids it should be the one player who was actually legit before taking them. If we are to forgive one player for tarnishing the game, it should be the player that fans paid money to see before he cheated. Bonds was arguably the best player in MLB for two decades…but who cares? Just like Lance Armstrong, Bonds cheated only AFTER he watched a bunch of dime a dozen jerks get 60 million dollar paydays because they were using steroids. I don’t want one person to respond to this blog and tell me that if you had the talent, had put in all of the hard work, and watched someone with half the talent get a contract twice as big as yours, that you wouldn’t have done the same thing. Once Bonds and Clemens (who were actually the best before steroids) starting taking steroids, they separated themselves from the pack to restore the correct hierarchy in baseball. Since they were the best before everyone took steroids, they became the best again once they joined the steroid party.
The perception that an athlete is an asshole should have nothing to do with his inclusion/exclusion from baseball. I am so sick of the hypocritical nature of the American sports fan and media that picks and chooses who we forgive based upon someone’s likeability. I would have loved to have been able to go to Camden Yards and see Bonds DH for my beloved Orioles. I hope 100 Oriole fans comment that they would rather have cheered for Randy Milligan, Dan Ford, or Glen Davis than Barry Bonds. Not me. I would have been in the stands with my kids telling them, “that is one of the best baseball players that has ever lived.”
Everyone knows that I am emotional about Pete Rose and think he should be in the Hall of Fame. But frankly, Barry Bonds deserves a shrine in Cooperstown even more than Charlie Hustle.
Woodman – straight up flamethrowing
Filed under: Baseball Tagged: | barry bonds, mark mcgwire, p.e.d's, sammy sosa, steroids
nice blog…i agree
1. I think you’re overestimating Mark McGwire’s popularity outside Missouri. I don’t think he’s a beloved figure…I agree that he’s not nearly the villain that Bonds is, but he’s far from beloved.
2. Bonds wasn’t blacklisted from baseball. His talent (at this point) isn’t greater than his downside (negative pub/poor defense). Believe me if teams thought Bonds could make a significant impact he would be playing in the MLB.
3. How can you say that his last seven years would have been just as good as his first 14? In 2000 he was 36 years old and without the help of PEDs he would have seen a significant decline in his numbers just like every normal human being. PEDs extended his career and enhanced his numbers. I don’t think you can justify the seven years of steroid enhanced numbers by saying that his first three years were pedestrian.
4. NO ONE is arguing that Bonds’ pre-steroid numbers (’86-’99) don’t merit him a spot in Cooperstown. Bonds will be in the Hall soon enough and that’s fine, because he deserves it, but outside of that no one owes him anything. What do you want, people to love him? It’s not happening, because he’s an asshole plan and simple. You can’t tell people that they can’t hate him is simply because he’s one of all time greats.
Pat,
I am not even fired up because I know I am right. It is safe to say Bonds wasn’t using P.E.D’s in 2007 when he was a washed up 43 year old. He had a .480 OBP and a .565 SLG %. Not one Oriole was even CLOSE to a .400 OBP this year. Also, if you reread the blog I flat out said that I DID NOT use ANY of his numbers after 1999 and I am not justifying ANY of his steroid inflated numbers. I simply used the mean average of his production between 1986-99 to come up with my final projections. The “decline” that you are talking about is a joke. Bonds was so good you couldn’t even throw him a strike! How could you possibly think steroids alone made him that good? Everybody else was using steroids and nobody was even close to the player Bonds was between 2000-2004. Instead of being superhuman and the best player in the league by far, he would have been the best player in baseball by a smaller margin. If anything, I thought my projections were very conservative. To say that between 2000-2004 his numbers would have declined relative to his pre-steroid numbers is patently ludicrous. Here is what Bonds hit his first four years in the league: .223, .261, .283, .and .248. These numbers were factored into my formula and weighed down his averages considerably. Many baseball players are like fine wines and gain the plate discipline and become better hitters in their late 30′s. Bonds was undergoing a transition from being a five tool beast to a quintessential power hitter. That is why I said if you want to argue his stolen bases would have declined…that is fair. Bonds was a superior athlete and even without steroids at 36-40 years old was just as athletic as any 20 year old. I did not project his numbers to be better than his pre-steroid days—but it is a very safe assumption they would have been in-line. Also, he was walked over a 1,000 times between 2000-2007. That is over two full seasons of at bats that were taken away from him because he was so dominant! Without steroids and being so incredible, he would have gained an additional 500+ at bats. You could argue he would have been in decline after 2006, but not before. Teams may have stayed away from him because he was no longer worth the PR hassle…but if Bonds came out of retirement today after not playing baseball for two years at 45 years old…I guarantee he would be the best power hitter in the Oriole line-up. I would put the deed to my house on it. Lastly, I don’t want ANYONE to love him. I just want him to be treated (at worst) like every other player in the steroid era. I may have overstated the “love” for McGwire…but I can’t remember reading one article by a major media outlet that singled him out and put a negative spin on the guy.
I never once said “steroids alone made him that good”. I simply said that from age 36 – 42 (’00-’06) PEDs prolonged Barry Bonds’ career and enhanced his numbers. Very few players naturally hit career highs in HRs and RBIs at age 37.
The numbers aren’t even really my point of contention, because to me they’re irrelevant. I’m not arguing that Bonds wasn’t a great player. I said that he had first ballot HOF numbers before he even started using PEDs, so please step down off your soapbox. This is such a contrived argument on your part.
A couple other things…
You keep on bringing up the O’s as if he was linked to the team, or there was some sort of anti-Bonds petition to keep him out of Baltimore.
I have heard many, many people in the media (especially sports talk radio) absolutely BLAST McGwire, especially after his lame grand jury testimony… “I’m not here to talk about the past”.
Bonds is generally hated and WAS (no one cares about him anymore) slightly over vilified by the media. That being said, I think you’d be hard pressed to find a baseball guy (media, player, educated fan) that would say he shouldn’t be in the Hall. The reason he was SLIGHTLY over vilified is, because unlike Giambi and McGwire, Bonds broke one of the most revered records in all of sports. Baseball, more than any other sport, values stats and Bonds (with the help of PEDs) passed Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron.
You’re projected numbers are probably more inline than I initially gave them credit for, but to assume that Bonds would have that level of longevity w/o PEDs is a stretch.
Barry Bonds is HANDS DOWN one of the top 5 baseball players of ALL TIME!!!! Don’t just look at the homers, look at the consistency. 7, count ‘em 7 MVPs, 3 (the next closest) prior to the “steroid” years. And won a batting title in 2002, granted that is in those inflated years, but that is an average. His plate discipline was impeccable, he hit 73 hrs seeing maybe one hittable pitch a game. His strikeouts for the average man would have been much higher. BARRY BARRY BARRY
No one is disputing that Barry Bonds is one of the top five players of all time.