I’ve noticed that not too many websites have made their early season NFL Predictions so, I’ve naturally decided to get the ball rolling so that when all of my picks are 100% correct, I can say I called them before anyone else.
After tirelessly combing through this seasons schedule for 15 minutes, a couple of noticable, and possibly questionable, picks need to be explained. We start in the AFC where most people will laugh at the mere thought of Cleveland finishing with a winning record and both Cincy and Pittsburgh going 8-8. While I think the North is still a pretty tough division and while we all know playing game picker based off of the season schedule in August is like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun, both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are victims of very difficult scheduling. Heck, even the Ravens only going 10-6 is not based off of their actual on field talent but more a scheduling decision. Beyond that, let’s not forget that when it comes to the Steel City, we won’t be seeing Big Ben for at least the first 3 games of the season and, the Steelers are a team who have lost Santonio Holmes and Willie Parker, amongst others, during the off-season.
I think this is the year Houston finally makes it to the playoffs (I think)…that’s not as surprising as the team they’ll have to beat out via a tie-breaker (in their favor this year). Oakland will go 10-6 and surprise a lot of people. They have a solid defense, a quarterback who actually hasn’t been half bad in his career, contrary to what Gordan here at JAS and other Redskins fans will tell you, some decent wide receivers, a pro bowl caliber tight end and, finally, a little continuity at the coaching position. Their schedule is one of the easiest in the league as well with NFC matchups against the Western Division. I wouldn’t be shocked if this team actually competes with the San Diego Chargers for the division crown.
Three notes on my NFC picks. 1) The NFC East is no longer a powerhouse…The ‘Skins and Eagles will be very bad and the Giants have too many questions on the Defensive side of the football and at running back to really make any real playoff push. 2) The NFC West will be pretty much unwatchable and 3) Brett Favre will play in Minnesota (I know this isn’t groundbreaking news) but, his age will finally catch up to him. Between his ankle, elbow and shoulder, I will be shocked if Brett actually continues his unbelievable games started streak throughout the year.
Finally, onto my Super Bowl picks. Has any New England Patriots team flown under the rador, since Bill Bellicheck took over, more than this one? Maybe the first Super Bowl team lead by a backup named Tom Brady but, other than that, not really…This team is still loaded with talent on the offensive side of the football and let’s not forget that most quarterbacks coming off of the injury Tom sustained a couple seasons back take a full 2 years to recover. Guess what year this is? With Tom and the passing game hitting on all cylinders like they did in 2008, the running game will finally come alive. The big if remains on the defensive side of the football. It’s time to see if the young guns the Patriots have brought in, including Jerod Mayo a few drafts back, can step up and be an adequate unit. The glaring x factor to keep an eye on is the Logan Mankins and Tom Brady contract situations. If the Pats don’t take care of these guys by week 5 or 6 and they faulter in a few games here and there, the traditionally stable Locker Room could become volatile for the first time under Bill and, this potential Super Bowl team could go in a completely different direction.
As for my NFC pick, it’s simple. The Cowboys are the most talented team in the NFC. The only reason I have the Falcons with a better record is based off a few hunches and a home schedule that sets up nicely (so that’s bound to be right, right?). “America’s Team” has a good quarterback, a great running game, multiple weapons in the passing game, a great offensive line and an absolute beast of a defense. Look for Tony Romo to finish 2nd in the MVP Voting behind Tom Brady. The only thing that can get in this teams way is a little thing we call pressure. While I don’t think the pressure will get to them in the regular season or playoffs, you can see below exactly where I think it will finally be their downfall.
Now, barring about 100 Pre-Season Injuries, here are my picks for the 2010-2011 Season and road to Dallas…
AFC:
East:
1) New England (13-3) (1)
2) New York (11-5) (5)
3) Miami (8-8)
4) Buffalo (5-11)
North:
1) Baltimore (10-6) (3)
2) Cleveland (9-7)
3) Cincinnati (8-8)
4) Pittsburgh (8-8)
South:
1) Indianapolis (13-3) (2)
2) Houston (10-6) (6)
3) Tennessee (9-7)
4) Jacksonville (3-13)
West:
1) San Diego (10-6) (4)
2) Oakland (10-6)
3) Kansas City (6-10)
4) Denver (3-13)
AFC Playoffs:
Wild Card Round–
(3) Baltimore over (6) Houston
(5) New York over (4) San Diego
Divisional Round–
(1) New England over (5) New York
(3) Baltimore over (2) Indianapolis
AFC Championship Game–
(1) New England over (3) Baltimore
NFC:
East:
1) Dallas (12-4) (2)
2) New York (8-8)
3) Philadelphia (5-11)
4) Washington (5-11)
North:
1) Green Bay (11-5) (3)
2) Chicago (10-6) (6)
3) Minnesota (8-8)
4) Detroit (3-13)
South:
1) Atlanta (13-3) (1)
2) New Orleans (11-5) (5)
3) Carolina (7-9)
4) Tampa Bay (3-13)
West:
1) San Fransisco (10-6) (4)
2) Seattle (7-9)
3) Arizona (5-11)
4) St. Louis (1-15)
NFC Playoffs:
Wild Card Round—
(3) Green Bay over (6) Chicago
(4) San Fransisco over (5) New Orleans
Divisional Round—
(1) Atlanta over (4) San Fransisco
(2) Dallas over (3) Green Bay
NFC Championship Game—
(2) Dallas over (1) Atlanta
Super Bowl XLV (From Cowboys Stadium)
New England 24 to Dallas 20
…Can anyone think of two teams playing in the big game that would polarize fans more?
-Tim Rescigno
Filed under: NFL Tagged: | AFC, NFC, NFL Preseason, NFL Preview
As you alluded to in your article, picking NFL season outcomes this early is risky business…I wouldn’t touch it with a ten foot pole. That being said, here are my thoughts:
• I don’t think this is the year for Cleveland to go 9-7. I think Holmgren will get them on the right path soon, but it’s not this year. Jake Delhomme is not good and they are lacking receivers big time.
• Ben will be gone the first four games at least. I still don’t think you can count the Steelers out just yet.
• Cincinnati is roster is very solid. I questioned their ability to string together back-to-back playoff seasons due to the ‘bungle’ factor, but I’m starting to think that they will compete for the AFC North title.
• I think Miami will finish with a better W/L record than the Jets. Mark Sanchez had a bad regular season and I think the Jets believe their own hype and are putting a major target on their back. If Sanchez struggles Rex better hope that defense is as good as he thinks they are…I certainly don’t think they’re on the level of the 2000 Ravens.
• People are picking Oakland as a sleeper playoff team. I believe they did the same last pre-season. I think it could happen, especially considering that the AFC West could be the worst Division in the NFL this season. Jason Campbell isn’t as bad as people say and I think some of his struggles are due to the Redskins dysfunction.
• The NFC East could be the most exciting Division to watch this year. Kolb is a major question mark, but the Eagles have a high ceiling of potential. I think your G-Men are in for a rough year.
• I think the NFC West, after years of mediocrity, could be a very exciting Division. I like the 49ers to win, but I think Pete Carroll’s Seahawks and Matt Leinart’s Cardinals can compete.
The reasoning for my Cleveland , Cincy and Pittsburgh picks are merely based off of the pre-season schedule. I’m the first to admit there’s no way to adequately predict an NFL season by circling wins and losses in August but, being that that’s all there really is to go off of now, take a look at the North’s schedule for yourself and tell me Cincy or Pitt are locks to have good years. I love the Bengals talent but, think they’ll prosper more next year when the schedule God’s are a little kinder. The facts are, Cincy opens at New England, then gets Baltimore at home, Carolina on the road, a divisional game with Cleveland on the road (which is never an automatic win), Atlanta on the road, and Miami all in the first 8 weeks. They’ll still have to face Pitt twice, Indianapolis in a Monday Nighter, the Jets on the road on Thanksgiving, New Orleans, San Diego then, finally close the season with Baltimore at M&T…while the talent is definitely there tell me that’s an easy path to the playoffs or even a likely one. Pittsburgh’s schedule isn’t much easier. Cleveland on the other hand gets Tampa and K.C. in weeks 1 and 2…if they can start 2-0, that could give a team with young talent a lot of confidence the reast of the way. There’s always going to be a few teams to surprise people and, my hunches are, those teams this year will be Cleveland, Oakland, and Chicago.
The reason for my picking the Dophins to miss the playoffs is basically because they have a tough schedule and will be playing with fairly high expectations this year. I think they are building a very good team down South under Bill Parcells and could even be a Super Bowl Contender next season (if there is a next season). I just think this is going to be a growing pains type of year with a lot of new pieces. Henne is still a question mark and, while I think he’ll be very good in this league, his first full season as a starter could be tough. Also, will Marshall just play football or will he be a headache in Miami as he was in Denver. He’s one of the Top 3 Wideouts in the game when he stays out of trouble.
The Jets are the type of team who believed their hype from their coach last year and, look where it got them. I refuse to believe a Rex Ryan coached team with arguably the best offensive line in football is not going to be very good. Their running attack with Shonn Greene as the starter and L.T. as a backup will be very tough to stop to be honest and will ensure that they’re in every single game. The real question mark as to their success is when/if Revis plays and whether or not Cromartie can handle single coverage a blitzing style offense without Revis there.
To me, the NFC East will not be anywhere near exciting for it’s on the field performance. I’m sure there will be plenty of excitment with Philly, Giants and Redskins fans calling into local radio stations to complain about their teams but, outside of the Cowboys, as you eluded, the Giants won’t be very good and, while I think that Kevin Kolb will be the real deal, the Eagles play a very tough schedule and have a lot of young guys to piece together in this lineup. Not having Donovan, Westbrook and 2 years removed from Brian Dawkins will take a whole lot of wind out of this teams sails from a leadership standpoint. They’ll be good next year or the season after but, I feel they’re really going to struggle in year one of the Kevin Kolk experiment. To think this is going to be an exciting division is a major reach. I haven’t even commented on the Redskins because they’ve been a non-stop debacle for the better part of the past 15 years at this point. I like the Shannahan and McNabb moves but, this is one of those teams that needs to show me something before I’m willing to even guess that they’ll be remotely good.
Finally, I think the 49ers will be fun to watch but, beyond that, the West isn’t’ exactly going to be an exciting brand of football. The division could be OK on the whole but, I won’t be tuning into too many St. Louis/Seattle or Arizona/Seattle games this season.
All in all, in August without a body of work to go off of yet, you have to look at the schedules and whether or not you feel a teams chemistry will click. While I’m sure a lot of these predictions will be dead wrong, some should be dead on.
Just to re-iterate my stance on the West…San Fran will be very exciting this year. The rest of the division just simply doesn’t get my heart rate up. While Seattle and Arizona don’t want to admit it to their fans, they are absolutely in rebuilding mode…Could Leinert be good and keep this team winning? Sure…is it likely? Probably not.
I really like the 49ers team and think they’ll be a real tough out in the playoffs. They had a great draft and really got 2 tackles who could anchor this team for years. Add the fact that Alex Smith finally looks legit, Crabtree is the real deal, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore are studs and, oh yeah, you now have Ted Ginn Jr. as your #2 receiver and yes, they will be very exciting (Great Defense too). I just think having 1 of 4 teams in a division that you’ll get amped up to watch doesn’t make for that much excitement.
I think you’re placing too much emphasis on team’s schedules when we all know that there will be teams you expected to be good in ’10 that are bad and vice versa. You can look at any schedule and find tough games, but in reality we really don’t know who will actually be good teams. We have an idea, but year in and year out the NFL surprises us.
Furthermore, the teams you listed as tough games on Cincy’s schedule also appear on the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns schedules. Does it really matter if you face good teams early or late? I know you want to get off to a good start, but it’s equally important to finish strong. The Giants started off 5-0 against a weak early schedule, but they finished 3-8 when they started playing good teams…eventually it catches up to you if you’re a pretender.
I think you get a better idea of how a team will do by examining their roster, coaching staff, and level of play through the pre-season. Oh and staying healthy is obviously a huge factor to success.
Pat, how would you like me to make predictions? Schedules and previous season talent is really all we have to go by right now…don’t you see a little tongue and cheek even in the title? Would you like me to just go on hunches?
Furthermore, I hit on 8 of 12 playoff teams last year and, the 4 I missed on were:
Houston (Last Team out, AFC)
Pittsburgh (2nd to Last Team out, AFC)
Atlanta (Last Team out, NFC)
New York (In the Hunt until the lastt two weeks)
Not to mention I had the Bengals with a winning record in 2009, the Titans going 8-8, the Bears missing the playoffs and the Panthers falling on their face after going 12-4 the season before. I also stuck with Arizona to win the West last year when everyone was saying it was the 49ers year to get back on top.
…As far as I’m concerned, that’s pretty damn good…Did anyone think the Saints would win the Super Bowl going into last year? I certainly didn’t and missed there. I mean, most didn’t even have them in the playoffs. Did most think the Bears would fall on their face (I think a lot of people had them in the Super Bowl)? My point is, you have to look at the schedule in the pre-season and go with a couple of longshots. You’ll win some and lose some…
You have to go out on the limb with some teams and I’m going to do just that, and stick by my predictions. I’m willing to bet I’m more right than wrong when all is said and done.
Furthermore, Cincy gets those tough teams on the same schedule as the Ravens and Browns on the road…this plays an absolutely huge factor in my decision making. The Browns, for example, get the Jets, Pats, Falcons and Panthers all at home where the Bengals get all 4 of those teams on the road. I’m willing to bet the Browns still 1 or maybe even 2 of those games at home where the Bengals lose all 4. You want to look at a trend over the years in the NFL and it’s that the best of teams falter against mediocre teams on the road quite often.
How bout we make a little JAS wager and you make your predictions and let the fans, on air, vote for what the loser has to do…something in good fun on air at the end of the season…Thoughts?