Just to clean up the Dallas/Vikings game, I never expected the Vikings defensive line to dominate us the way that they did. Edwards played like a man possessed and ate Columbo alive at RT. There are no woulda-coulda-shouldas in that game: the Vikings were a better team than the Dallas Cowboys.

I know this is going to alienate a number of NFL and New Orleans Saints fans, but if the Saints played Minnesota on a neutral field they would get beat 9 out of 10 times. The Vikings were clearly the better team, but playing on the road in a dome is a very difficult proposition. How about this for domination:

The Vikings had 475 total yards to the Saints 257. Drew Brees didn’t even throw for 200 yards. The leading Saints receiver, Devery Henderson, caught four balls for 39 yards. So much for the vaunted Saints offense.

Minnesota put the ball on the carpet six times and lost three fumbles. Favre threw a terrible interception at the end of regulation and A.P. dropped a handoff at the end of the first half that could have swung the momentum toward the Vikings. I am happy for the community of New Orleans, but the Saints are just not that good. Saints starting linebackers Shanle & Fujita wouldn’t even make the practice squad in Dallas. I also believe if the Saints had to play any of the other five NFC playoff contenders on the road, they wouldn’t beat any of them. God bless their hearts, but next year this team will be 10-6 at best.

I will tip my hat to the Jets and Rex Ryan and want to congratulate them on a solid cinderella run. With that being said, thank God they got beat because nobody wanted to see this bush league squad in the Super Bowl. The Jets defense was not the 85 Bears, 86 Giants, or 2000 Ravens. The Jets offense was like watching grass grow and this team did not deserve to play in Miami. I like the Jets offensive line and defensive moxy, but if you give Peyton Manning enough looks at your scheme, he is going to figure you out.

Peyton came out in the second half and flat out attacked the aggressive Jets secondary. Needless to say he made the Jets pay to the tune of 24 unanswered points. When Manning marched the Colts down the field to answer the Jets score at the end of the first half, you knew it was the beginning of the end. The Jets schemed to take away Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, so Peyton lit them up with Pierre Garcon (11 rec., 151 yards, 1 TD) and rookie Austin Collie (7 rec., 123 yards, 1 TD). What other QB could make these receivers look this good on this big of a stage? The best QB’s I have ever seen play: Marino, Montana, Elway, and Manning.

On the other side of the ball, let’s give the Colt’s defense their due as they held the league’s best rushing attack to 86 yards. Also, the Jets hit them with a couple of big plays including an 80 yard TD pass and a gimmick pass from wildcat QB Brad Smith. If you take these two plays off the board, the Jets didn’t make much hay against a fast, aggressive Colts unit.

I literally had a heart attack when I saw that the initial line for the Super Bowl was the Colts -4. Are you kidding me? I know that I am right and am not going to argue with anyone: the Colts are a LOCK to win the Super Bowl.

I know the Saints are the emotional story: Hurricane Katrina, the team representing a city rebuilding and putting so much stock and faith into their beloved Saints, etc. etc. etc. The Colts didn’t come all this way to botch it against this rubbish front seven. Peyton Manning is ready to crystalize his legacy and he knows he needs at least one more ring to solidify his legend. The Vikings should be playing in Miami against Indy and the Favre redemption storyline would have generated tremendous hype. I wanted it to happen so bad so that my co-host Jim would have eaten crow over his constant Favre criticism. Instead, Jim was vindicated and Favre choked it away just like many expected him to do.

I hope everyone enjoys this last season without my beloved Cowboys being in the Super Bowl. The Cowboys will be back with a vengeance in 2010 and will have the opportunity to have home field advantage in next years Super Bowl. Sorry Eagles fans, but the balance of power has shifted in the NFC East and there is a new sheriff in town. Dallas has a young nucleus of stars and they are only going to get better.

Last but not least, Drew Brees doesn’t even hold Peyton Manning’s jock strap. So let’s stop the Brees should have been MVP hype. The world will see who is clearly the best QB in the league in two weeks. And yes Patriots fans, that includes Tom Brady as well.

Colts will cover the spread, put your house on it.

Woodman – Cowboy apologist for life

Indianapolis is a disciplined team that consistently wins 13 games or more every season. You know my feeling toward the Colts pulling their starters in the 3rd quarter of the Jets game. Here is a closer look at the Colts by the numbers:

9th in team offense, 18th in team defense, 16th in the league in sacks (34), 24th in the league in rush defense (126.5 yds/game), 14th in pass defense, +2 turnover differential, 2nd in the league with only 542 penalty yards, 31st in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Colts net margin of victory is +109.

Peyton Manning is a beast and the Colts have an elite pass rusher in Dwight Freeney. However, look at those numbers, unfortunately this is not a Super Bowl team.

How about the Saints? They are still a sexy pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Let’s put New Orleans under the electron microscope:

1st in team offense, 25th in team defense, 13th in the league in sacks (35), 21st in the league in rush defense (122.2 yds./game), 26th in pass defense, +11 turnover differential, 17th in the league with 787 penalty yards, and 14th in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Saints net margin of victory is +169 points.

I can’t believe with all of the big leads this team has had during the season they mustered only 35 sacks. Even making teams one dimensional did not allow the Saints front seven to post great sack totals. This lack of consistent pass rush will undo the Saints in the end.

How about Charm City’s beloved Ravens?

13th in team offense, 3rd in team defense, 18th in the league in sacks (32), 5th in the league in rush defense (93.2 yds./game), 8th in pass defense, +10 turnover differential, 32nd in the league with 1,094 penalty yards, and 11th in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Ravens net margin of victory is +130 points and the Ravens allowed only 261 points all season (3rd in NFL).

All the talk of the Ravens inconsistent defense and poor secondary play didn’t necessarily translate over in the numbers. The lack of discipline certainly does and the Ravens will have to clean up the penalties if they expect to win in Foxboro.

How about Ravens opponent on Sunday? The Patriots don’t jump off the page at me at all:

3rd in team offense, 11th in team defense, 23rd in the league in sacks (31), 13th in the league in rush defense (110.5 yds./game), 12th in pass defense, +6 turnover differential, 12th in the league with 743 penalty yards, and 12th in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Patriots net margin of victory is +142 points.

The Patriots do not get pressure on the QB, they have secondary issues, and injury concerns to key players. The Pats will reload with two first round picks in the 2010 NFL draft and be a legit contender next year. However, they will get dumped by the Ravens on Sunday ending the dream for this season.

How about San Diego? Even despite Norv Turner the Chargers are the hottest team in the league.

10th in team offense, 16th in team defense, 13th in the league in sacks (35), 20th in the league in rush defense (117.6 yds./game), 11th in pass defense, +8 turnover differential, 3rd in the league with only 570 penalty yards, and 23rd in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Chargers net margin of victory on the season is +134 points.

The Chargers defense has turned the corner and Rivers knows how to keep pressure on a defense. However, strictly looking at the numbers, this team does not jump off the page.

The Jets rank #1 in team defense, #1 in pass defense, and 8th against the run. The trouble is that they have a terribly inconsistent offense. The Bengals peaked in late October and don’t even warrant my attention. No team in the AFC playoffs is ranked higher than 8th against the run or 13th in sacks. There is just a lack of dominant defenses in the AFC.

There are three or four good defenses in the NFC. The hottest team and defense appears to be the Dallas Cowboys. Let’s look closer at the ‘Boys:

2nd in the league in team offense, 9th in the league in team defense, 7th in the league in sacks (42), 4th in the league in rush defense (90.5 yds./game), 20th in pass defense, +2 turnover differential, 28th in the league with 892 penalty yards, 5th in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Cowboys net margin of victory is +111 and they allowed only 250 points all season (2nd in NFL).

The Cowboys have posted back to back shutouts and Anthony Spencer has six sacks in his last 6 games. Mike Jenkins has emerged as the Cowboys best corner. We shall see if Romo can continue to protect the football while still making plays down the field.

Two other teams in the NFC also rank in the Top 10 in both team offense and defense.

The Vikings looked to be falling apart until the Giants rolled over to help give Minny and Brett Favre some new found confidence. The Vikings look very complete on paper:

5th in team offense, 6th in team defense, 1st in the league in sacks (48), 2nd in the league in rush defense (87.1 yds./game), 19th in pass defense, +6 turnover differential, 13th in the league with 757 penalty yards, 3rd in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Vikings net margin of victory on the season is +158 points.

Favre silenced his critics by throwing for over 4,200 yards, 33 TD’s, and only 7 int’s. We will see if he is able to maintain this level of play in January.

The other team that looks tremendous on paper is the Green Bay Packers:

6th in team offense, 2nd in team defense, 11th in the league in sacks (37), 1st in the league in rush defense (83.3 yds./game), 5th in pass defense, +24 turnover differential, 31st in the league with 1,057 penalty yards, and 9th in getting off the field on 3rd down defense. The Packers net margin of victory on the season is +164.

The Packers are undisciplined like the Ravens but offer a pretty complete package with a solid defense and the arm of Aaron Rodgers.

The Eagles are not ranked in the top 10 in defense or offense and will get dumped by the Cowboys for a third time Saturday night. The Cardinals are horrible statistically and are the only playoff team with a negative turnover differential (-7).

These are the keys to winning championships, it is no secret:

1) Run the ball and stop the run

2) get pressure on the opposing QB

3) get off the field on 3rd down when you are on defense and convert on 3rd down when you have the ball.

Who do you think will emerge and play for all the marbles in Miami? I am laying down my marker:

Chargers 24 vs. Cowboys 20.

Woodman

There is always a team every year that turns the corner late in the season and makes a surprising Super Bowl run. The Giants did it in 2007, Arizona did it last year, and my intuition tells me there will be another surprise team in 2009.

Super Bowl and successful playoff teams are built upon steady defensive play and the ability to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback. Teams that play a track meet style of offense and score 30+ Sept. – late November rarely win Super Bowls. I have never embraced the New Orleans Saints as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Saints are just not good enough on defense to win it all. I don’t think they have a great offensive line either.

The AFC is supposedly stacked with many good teams and the prevailing sentiment is that anyone making the playoffs will have a chance of making a Super Bowl run. I have thought all year that Peyton Manning was destined for ring #2, but after the debacle this week I am jumping ship on the Colts. Winning breeds more winning. Losing breeds more losing. By pulling Manning, Wayne, and Dallas Clark in the third quarter against the Jets, the Colts have lost their forward momentum. I don’t care what anyone says, the Colts will never regain their swagger this season. If you weigh the fact that the starters will not play much (if at all) this week and will not play the following week because of the bye week, the Colts are not going to get the repetitions they need to stay crisp.

The team that has the eye of the tiger in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers. Everyone just assumes that Norv Turner will choke and ruin the season at some point, but I don’t think so. Phillip Rivers is a beast and puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. The Chargers win at Dallas in December was very impressive, and their defense seems to be turning the corner at the most important time of the year. They have running backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield, a pair of TE’s, and two athletic, playmaking wide receivers. If you blitz Rivers and leave your corner backs one on one, he will take a shot down the field every time.

The Jets are terrible, the Pats have no pass rush, Indy has peaked, the Ravens can’t get out of their own way, and Cinci just isn’t playing good football. The AFC is there for the taking for the Chargers and it looks like it may be their time.

In the NFC there is one team that is standing out to me as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys defense is #1 in the NFC in points allowed giving up only 16.7 points per game. The Cowboys get pressure on the quarterback. The Cowboys (since week 2) do not let anyone march up and down the field. Mike Jenkins and Anthony Spencer are very good football players. DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff are great football players. The Cowboys have depth in their front seven and an emotional leader in veteran LB Keith Brooking. They have the look of a team that is peaking at the right time and is no longer shooting themselves in the foot with penalties, turnovers, and poor coaching. Also, Felix Jones has yet to have a signature game…but he will.

Everyone knows that I am a diehard Cowboys fan. But, I rarely come out and lay down my marker and get it wrong. Philly has dominated the Cowboys for the last decade because they have always been the more physical team with an attacking/playmaking defense. The Eagles have brutalized the Cowboys because they were consistently the better defensive team. But not anymore. Dallas has the better defense and they will show it this Sunday. Bettors will put their house on Philly +3 banking on the Romo/Wade Phillips choke. The Cowboys time is now and they will beat the Eagles by 2 scores this weekend. I guarantee it.

In the NFC playoffs, the Packers, Eagles, and Cowboys will be the best teams. All of the “top” teams are going to find themselves playing golf much earlier than they anticipated. I expect the winner of the Dallas/Philly game this Sunday to march through the NFC and punch their ticket to Miami.

Just like I called the BCS title game in late August, I will be right again with a San Diego vs. Dallas Super Bowl. Just because I would rather watch soccer, don’t sleep on my football instincts. I hope this article kicks up some serious dust so we can end 2009 with some heated discussion!

Everyone have a Happy New Year.

Woodman